Read the latest WaveData articles, or search through our archive.

We tend to assume that different forms of generic solid dose products are equally cheap to produce and so will see their prices decline equally fast after launch. But is this true? To find out Wavedata Looked at 70 capsule products (SKUs) and 343 tablets, tracked their average UK sales prices to pharmacies and dispensing doctors in the months after launch. We then used this to create an estimate of how quickly competition between suppliers forced prices down.

Four packs of Duloxetine E/C Caps have shown repeating cycles of shortages, price variation sand concessions.  These sorts of cycles are seen in about 80% of generic products, and can result in severe shortages which affect patients, pharmacies, clinicians and tax payers. We believe that these cycles are predictable and the low prices which trigger shortages can be anticipated.

Wavedata have been collecting the prices offered to or paid by pharmacies since 2000, so we thought we’d do a comparison between the generic prices we collected in August 2022 and the English Drug Tariff.

The companies making and selling branded generics could simply launch generics and compete with each other for market share. However, having their own brand names allows them to improve the quality of the product in various ways to help the clinician and patient. So they can improve the taste and acceptability of oral dosage forms, improve the products’ resistance to temperature variations, or improve the pack size to better fit with GP prescribing.  Some manufacturers even do rebate deals with prescribing groups so offer rebates or additional services which can help clinicians.

In July 2022 a £13.65 concession price was granted to help pharmacists during a time of shortages and price rises. This product has seen its average market price, paid by pharmacists and dispensing doctors, declining gradually from over £60.00 in 2012 to less than £2.00.

The prices pharmacies and dispensing doctors pay for statins in the UK is  very variable with prices for packs ranging from £0.01 to £14.64.

When the market price of a generic product declines to a point where manufacturers can no longer make a profit, they may decide to cancel or not commission the next batch of stock. Consequently, the price goes up as the available stock in the market declines. The low price that triggers the spike in value does seem to be reasonably consistent, although some variability exists.

Since July 2013 the average price of Tranylcypromine Tabs 10mg 28 has risen from £101.69 to £364.52 in July 2022. The English Drug Tariff has also risen from £92.00 in July 2012 and is now £487.08 which means that pharmacies can make a profit of £122.56 on each pack they buy.

All the Paracetamol Suspensions being sold to pharmacists and dispensing doctors in the UK have risen in price over the last 10 years. This is likely to be a consequence of increasing manufacturing costs and the growth in demand for these products. 

Between February and September 2021 the department of health and social care (DHSC) granted concession prices to Etoricoxib Tabs 90mg 28 to help dispensers during a time of shortage and high prices. Wavedata thought it would be interesting to analyse the actual prices offered to pharmacies and dispensing doctors to see how fast prices recovered after the shortage, and how quickly a normal picture was restored.

This article illustrates two things. The first is that UK prices do often go through rises and falls on a semi-predictable periodic basis. The second is that the UK market is highly competitive.

The rate at which the generic product price is likely to drop will depend on the number of license holders. So, fewer than 3 will produce a very slow price decay rate, and more than 20 will be very fast.