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Is there a correlation between the Euro to Pound exchange rate and the average price of parallel imports sold to pharmacies and dispensing doctors?
It seems sensible to assume that parallel imports are affected by the Euro to Pound exchange rate as they are sourced from Europe and sold in the UK. Therefore we looked at the prices we had seen advertised for parallel imports by wholesalers and importers over the last 22 years. Then we compared the exchange rate with the average PI price and with the number of PI offers we had seen in price lists sent to pharmacies and dispensing doctors.
Competition between the suppliers of parallel imports over a ten year period.
Efient was launched in the UK in 2009 and the first parallel imports appeared on the UK market in 2011 after a two year ‘honeymoon’ period. In the graph below each colour represents a UK wholesaler selling parallel imported Efient to UK pharmacies and dispensing doctors.
Parallel Imports and how quickly they appear and disappear
Efient was launched in the UK in 2009. This was followed by a two year honeymoon period, which ended in 2011 when the first parallel imports appeared on the UK retail market.
Efient and Prasugrel Tabs 10mg 28 Long Term Lifecycle Market Activity (Price Lists) Trends
Recently we ran a report (also on https://www.wavedata.co.uk/articles ) which showed the long term prices of Efient and Prasugrel Tabs 10mg 28. Today we thought we’d look at the market activity for the same products over the last 10 years. Market activity or record count is the number of prices we see for a product in our data. It gives an indication of the amount of activity wholesalers and manufacturers are putting into selling these products to their customers.
Efient and Prasugrel Tabs 10mg 28 Long Term Lifecycle Price Trends
Efient Tabs 10mg 28 first appeared in Wavedata’s data, collected from pharmacies and dispensing doctors, in April 2011. Parallel Imports appeared before UK packs, which suggests there was a period during which Efient was sold to pharmacies through linked systems without appearing in price lists. There is normally a two year ‘honeymoon’ period before parallel imports start to threaten UK sales and as Daiichi Sankyo’s media website says that Efient was launched in the UK on the 8th April 2009, a two year honeymoon period sounds about right.
Hydrocortisone Ointment and Super Retail Price Cycles
Boom bust cycles exist for up to 81% of generics as market competition forces prices down to levels which cannot be profitably be sustained by manufacturers, at which some stop manufacturing. This leads to a reduction in the stock available to dispense, followed by a shortage and a price rise. Manufacturers then spot that prices are higher and profitable again, so recommence manufacturing. Prices then start to decline as free enterprise restarts and the whole cycle repeats. These cycles are normally about 3 or 4 years long, but they can be longer on occasion.
Discount Offered by Suppliers for Short Dated Products vs. The Number of Months Left till Product Expiry
In theory, a product which is due to expire very soon should be offered to pharmacies at a large discount, whereas a product with many months of life remaining should only have a small discount. However, in this analysis and in others we’ve run in the past this is not the case.
What Triggers Generic Price Rises?
When the market price of a generic product declines to a point where manufacturers can no longer make a profit, they may decide to cancel or not commission the next batch of stock. Consequently, the price goes up as the available stock in the market declines.
Generic Product Price Bounces and How Often they Happen
After the originator product loses its exclusivity (LOE) and generics have been launched, the market price of the generic can fall very quickly. Those products with more generic licence holders tend to fall faster than those with fewer. However, where product prices fall very rapidly, licence holders can see the market price fall below a point at which they can make a profit and they may decide not to make any more. At this point the remaining stock in the market becomes more valuable as the amount available to supply pharmacies declines. The result of this is an increase in the price as the few boxes left in wholesaler warehouses increase in value.
Generic Product Price Bounces and How they Happen
After the originator product loses its exclusivity (LOE) and generics have been launched, the market price of the generic can fall very quickly. Those products with more generic licence holders tend to fall faster than those with fewer. However, where product prices fall very rapidly, licence holders can see the market rate fall below a point at which they can make a profit. At this point the remaining stock in the market becomes more valuable as the amount available to supply pharmacies declines.
Generic Product Price Bounces
Price bounces happen after the originator product (Migard Tabs 2.5mg 6 in this case) loses its exclusivity (LOE) and generics have been launched. The market price of the generic can fall very quickly if there are lots of generic licence holders. However, where product prices fall very rapidly, licence holders can see the market rate fall below a point at which they can make a profit. At this point the remaining stock in the market becomes more valuable as the amount available to supply pharmacies declines.
Post Loss of Exclusivity (LOE) and Generic Launch Price Forecasting (Galvus and Vildagliptin)
Generic versions of Galvus are due to be launched by generic manufacturers in the coming weeks, so what is the future for Vildagliptin? There is a ‘honeymoon’ period after generics are launched during which the original brand manufacturer can profitably equalise their price against generics so that branded packs are dispensed against generic prescriptions. This period can be long or short depending on the number of generics which are launched in competition with each other.
Post Launch Price Decline for Generic Tabs and Caps
We tend to assume that different forms of generic solid dose products are equally cheap to produce and so will see their prices decline equally fast after launch. But is this true? To find out Wavedata Looked at 70 capsule products (SKUs) and 343 tablets, tracked their average UK sales prices to pharmacies and dispensing doctors in the months after launch. We then used this to create an estimate of how quickly competition between suppliers forced prices down.
Boom and Bust for Duloxetine E/C Caps and a Forecasting Opportunity
Four packs of Duloxetine E/C Caps have shown repeating cycles of shortages, price variation sand concessions. These sorts of cycles are seen in about 80% of generic products, and can result in severe shortages which affect patients, pharmacies, clinicians and tax payers. We believe that these cycles are predictable and the low prices which trigger shortages can be anticipated.
Originator Brand vs. Branded Generic Entries in Price Lists sent to Pharmacies and Dispensing Doctors
In light of the increases to the rebates that branded and brand-generic manufacturers have to return to the NHS under the VPAS voluntary and statutory schemes, with forecast rebates of 25% in 2023 we thought it worth having a look at the amount of effort each type of manufacturer puts in to advertising its products to pharmacies and dispensing doctors in price lists.
How quickly do generic prices decline after launch for different types of products?
At Wavedata we have always believed that product complexity and manufacturing cost was the limiting factor on how quickly prices would fall after generic launch. However, is this correct? To clarify this Wavedata looked at 414 solid dose, combined, liquids, devices and creams to see how quickly prices came down in reality. To do this we tracked the average prices paid or offered to pharmacists or dispensing doctors after launch, and adjusted the data to show the number of months since the launch rather than the actual dates.
How profitable are English Pharmacies?
Wavedata have been collecting the prices offered to or paid by pharmacies since 2000, so we thought we’d do a comparison between the generic prices we collected in August 2022 and the English Drug Tariff.
Brands, GP Prescribing and Trends
The companies making and selling branded products need to understand how well their long term efforts are working to convince GPs to prescribe their brands.
Brands and GP Prescribing
The companies making and selling branded products need to understand how well their efforts are working to convince GPs to prescribe their brands.
Branded Generics and GP Prescribing
The companies making and selling branded generics could simply launch generics and compete with each other for market share. However, having their own brand names allows them to improve the quality of the product in various ways to help the clinician and patient. So they can improve the taste and acceptability of oral dosage forms, improve the products’ resistance to temperature variations, or improve the pack size to better fit with GP prescribing. Some manufacturers even do rebate deals with prescribing groups so offer rebates or additional services which can help clinicians.
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