Post Loss of Exclusivity (LOE) and Generic Launch Price Forecasting (Galvus and Vildagliptin)

Sep 6, 2022 | Generics, UK Brands

Generic versions of Galvus are due to be launched by generic manufacturers in the coming weeks, so what is the future for Vildagliptin? There is a ‘honeymoon’ period after generics are launched during which the original brand manufacturer can profitably equalise their price against generics so that branded packs are dispensed against generic prescriptions. This period can be long or short depending on the number of generics which are launched in competition with each other.

Generally the rule is that the larger the number of generic manufacturers the faster the generic price will fall and the shorter the honeymoon period. The medical use of the product has not been shown to have much effect on future prices unless something else, like branded prescribing of epilepsy products to prevent seizures, interferes with the number of generic prescriptions being written. An additional factor which makes a major difference to the number of generic manufacturers is the value of the product before launch as this drives the manufacturers to commission stock production.

In July 2022 the total cost of Galvus (Vildagliptin)  prescriptions written in England was £88,203 with all but £1,482 written generically. This compares well with the value of Cilostazil (Pletal) prescriptions written before launch in October 2013 when the total cost was £96,636, of which only £2,183 was prescribed by brand.

Because of this we can use the price decline of Cilostazil as an example of what might happen to Vildagliptin in the coming months and years. However, there are some things which can’t be predicted, like how long it will be before  Vildagliptin is added to category M of the drug tariff, which depends more on how much profit needs to be returned to pharmacies than anything about the product, and whether Vildagliptin  continues to be prescribed as frequently by clinicians as at present or not.

Therefore baring any unknown changes and based on a single analogue (there are lots of others) here is an example of what might happen to the average UK prices of Galvus  and Vildagliptin in the future. It is also worth saying that 81% of generic products suffer price bounces which may reoccur on a regular basis. Cilostazol Tabs 100mg 56 didn’t do this, so it fits into our 19% of products which don’t have major price peaks or bounces. However, there is no guarantee that Vildagliptin will behave in the same way.

Both generic and branded manufacturers use Wavedata Live to track supplier prices as it gives them a detailed view of current market prices, and some use the BPPI to track long term price behaviour. Both can be found on and bespoke reports are available if required.

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