This product was launched in December 2014 and has had a reasonably stable price there after. The average price came down very quickly, reaching stability by mid 2016. However, since then this product has experienced a couple of price bounces where the average price rose unexpectedly, concessions had to be granted and increases in the drug tariff followed.
These bounces were in January 2018 and in November 2022. Each time a concession was granted to try and help pharmacists over the resulting shortage. In 2018 this lasted for seven months and in 2022 for nine months. It took about three years between launch and the first price bounce, and five years between the first and the second, which may mean that there will be more unexpected price rises in the future.
The first bounce in 2017 may have resulted from the average price reaching a low of £0.77, and the lowest price which may have triggered the second price bounce was £0.55. Very low market prices can force manufacturer withdrawal, reducing stock in the trade and forcing prices up until new stock appears.
Charles Joynson comments ‘Monitoring the lowest market price, and setting £0.55 as a watch point point could help us identify a potential third bounce in the product lifecycle.’