These cycles were initiated by the high prices in place when these products were launched in September 2011, the second spike happened in September 2017 and the third is happening now. Normally these spikes become less intense and spikes lower as time passes and manufacturers become aware that the cycle exists. We don’t yet know if the current spike has been capped or if prices will continue to rise, but early signs are that prices are falling for 5 out of the 8 products analysed.
Interestingly in both of the cycles seen so far, the recovery phase after a price spike has been split into high price and low price periods. WaveData have previously seen very low prices trigger spikes in other generic products as unprofitable prices drive manufacturers out of the market. In the low priced periods for Olanzapine Orodispersible Tablets the lowest prices were £0.84 and £1.16, so these products appear to become unprofitable at about £1.00 per pack.
If these cycles persist, we can expect the prices of sugared and sugar free forms of Olanzapine Orodispersible Tablets to spike again in 5 years, which is September 2028, unless prices are maintained at above £1.00 for the long term.