Recent research has demonstrated that, here in the UK, manufacturers of a standard oral preparation will attract, on average, 9 generic competitors within two years of patent expiry.

What is also apparent is that, as a growing number of modern, efficient manufacturing plants come on stream in India, China and Eastern Europe, the competition is presenting increasingly intense pressures from day one after expiry.

The market is well aware that the entry of generic competition onto the scene generally leads to significant product price erosion.

However, it has never been possible with any reasonable degree of accuracy to gauge the extent of that price erosion nor the rate of price decline. Will the generic price discount the pre-expiry brand price by 30% or 60% ?
Will it take a month before the price decline levels out, or will it perhaps take up to two years?

These, of course, are very relevant questions, which are equally significant to all producers selling into an open market.

There is no point in any-one pushing prices to cost-of-production levels purely to gain market-share. 100% of No Profit = No Profit, after all, and the 21st century global generics industry is streamlined, adaptable & readily-able to change direction when more lucrative targets beckon.

WaveData has been able to monitor UK generic price changes in huge detail, as a result of which we have been able to develop a model that allows market professionals to eliminate much of the guesswork when it comes to assessing the likely speed & extent of progressive generic price decline.

PROfesy CR is an on-line decision-support tool for the entire pharmaceutical industry, helping originators to predict the prices of their brands after patents expire, and enabling generic manufacturers to plan product launches with precision.

Based on our observations of the price histories of over 120 actual patent expiries, PROfesy CR is a complex statistical model, which uses sophisticated mathematical techniques to forecast post-patent price actions.

Users of this revolutionary aid to forecasting generic prices find PROfesy CR a simple, flexible & efficient addition to the lifecycle management toolbox.  With minimal data input required, the impact on prices of a variety of future scenarios can be compared and used in strategic budgeting & planning models.