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July 30, 2010
 


Operational Guide

Multiple Scenario Forecasting

Constant Refinement

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    constant refinement

Constant Refinement is an inherent feature of PROfesy CR, at two levels:

Firstly:

As the market in a particular product develops, users of PROfesy CR can simply and easily refine previous forecasts with updated market data as it becomes available, and note the effect on their projections of future prices.

For instance, if a manufacturer had been basing a marketing plan on an assumption of, say, four active competitors within a given period after patent-expiry, but it transpired that there were only two rivals actually operating in the market, then the effect of this change on likely prices can be instantly observed.

Secondly:

The mathematical model at the heart of PROfesy CR is subject to constant refinement, as the effects of other current market dynamics are observed & measured.

Other criteria which can be factored into the PROfesy CR algorithm include
therapeutic sector, market value and seasonality.

In addition, observations of price actions following generic product launches are weighted, to reflect the greater relevance to the model of price behaviour following more recent patent expiries.

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